Social Sciences Research Center, a sub-organizational unit at International Burch University, was established in 2013 with the basic goal of contributing to solving social issues in local communities, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the Western Balkans region, and wider. In the previous eight years, the SSRC developed in the direction of social research in the fields of economics law, and political science, whilst maintaining its initial idea of contributing to societal development through research.

Economic sanctions are a very popular tool in foreign policy, especially when the alternative is military intervention. It’s been used various situations: against the Taliban in Afghanistan, against Russia during the annexation of Crimea – but most notably, against Russia during their current war of aggression against Ukraine. The key goal of these sanctions, both during the annexation and now during the war, has been deterrence: to dissuade Russia from violating international law, further aggression and warfare via economic pressure and isolation. These sanctions have been vast, multilateral and unprecedented in scale, including embargos against Sberbank, Russia’s largest privately owned financial institution, notable Russian gas, mining, oil, telecommunication and railroad companies, the removal of Russia from the SWIFT system, and blocking Russia from accessing foreign exchange reserves. Regardless, the war continues on Ukraine, with Russia largely unfettered. Despite the extreme measures taken against Russia, their war continues undeterred. The question is: why have these sanctions failed? &nbsp;The anti-dollar Despite the U.S. dollars dominance in global financial markets, U.S. sanctions against Russia have not been as crippling as expected. Since 2014, Russia has been collaborating with countries like China and seeking alternative trade partners to circumvent Western sanctions, reducing their dependence on Western financial systems. The dollar is the largest reserve currency in the world – it dominates global financial markets and institutions, banks and loans. With that in mind, US sanctions against Russia should have been crippling, limiting their ability to create capital and maintain economic growth in international markets: especially when such sanctioned countries are in war. The reality of the situation is quite different. Since 2014, Russia has been taking ‘anti-dollar’ measures – meaning that they have been building and facilitating alternative initiatives to combat the US’ dominance over the world’s currency via the dollar. Collaborating with other rivals to the US, such as China, they’re striving to remove their dependence on the dollar in their economies. Other than this, Russia has been seeking alternative trade partners in non-Western countries to sustain its economy despite the sanctions levied against it internationally by Western Europe and North America. Russia has progressively reduced its dependency on the dollar by decreasing its presence in their foreign currency reserves, replacing them with the euro, gold and yuan. In 2018, they reduced their dollar holdings from $96.1 billion to $14.9 billion. Its important to understand that Russia and China’s bilateral relations have only been improving following sanctions, especially concerning the anti-dollar and other movements that serve to remove their dependence on the West. As the war has progressed, Russia’s investment into China has only increased – Russia holds almost a quarter of global yuan reserves, over ten times the usual average. Following sanctions in 2021, including the removal of Russia from the SWIFT program, anti-dollar sentiments only increased. An alternative was quickly introduced: CIPS, the Chinese rival to SWIFT. This substantially reduced the dependence on the West and their financial institutions, allowing countries such as Iran (also removed from SWIFT) to bypass such sanctions almost entirely and therefore reduce their significance. SWIFT had been seen as one of the most drastic economic sanctions taken against Russia, Iran and other states – but the sanction quickly backfired and produced a new problem in itself. If there’s an alternative to SWIFT, why impose the sanction at all? With other financial systems at hand, it feels moreso like a slap on the wrist from the West rather than a debilitating measure. By diversifying its economic and trade partners and reducing dependence on Western financial systems, Russia has mitigated the impact of sanctions that were designed to isolate it economically.&nbsp;Oil and profit Sanctions by the EU, G7, US, and Australia on Russia's largest industry, oil, aimed to cap export prices and limit revenue. However, Russia bypassed these sanctions by selling to non-Western buyers, using uninsured tankers for covert trades, and supplying sanctioned markets through third-party countries like India. Economically, the revenue from Russian oil accounts for 30 to 50 percent of their total budget revenues: it’s logical to conclude that oil serves as the most important singular source of income for the state. Oil sanctions were meant to hit hard and fast, limiting Russian export prices to $60 per barrel. Mainly, this was to avoid a European energy crisis while ensuring that the oil industry in Russia would take a considerable hit in revenue. While their economy initially suffered, they capitalized on an obvious alternative: non-Western and domestic buyers, who were more than willing to pay far above the sanction-led price limit. Even the leaders of the sanctions struggled to monitor all of Russia’s transactions concerning oil, which easily numbered in the thousands. This was especially true for territories outside of the G7’s jurisdiction. Worse still, Russian shadow fleets contribute to a significant amount of the circumvention around oil sanctions – vessels owned, or insured in the West cannot ship sanctioned cargo, but Russia owns a considerable amount of totally uninsured tankers that enable the ‘ghost trade’ of oil. Russian exports targeted by sanctions have vanished in the ghost trade, valued at over $1 billion. Furthermore, there is no limitation on third-party buyers from purchasing Russian crude oil, refining it, and selling it onwards to the states that had originally sanctioned Russia in the first place – India is one such country that operates as a Russian oil ‘laundromat’. To put it short: Russian oil, refined and exported from laundromats, is flowing into the very markets that sanctioned it in the first place, including America and EU markets. Inflation? Despite flaws in the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, they have significantly impacted the state by freezing $350 billion in currency reserves, weakening the ruble, and causing Russian inflation to increase.&nbsp;Russia’s currency reserves, including their reserves in both dollars and euros, have been frozen: valued at $350 billion, this accounted for half of their total foreign reserves despite investment into alternative avenues other than the dollar. The Russian economy is damaged – and the ruble has been weakening. At the beginning of 2023, the ruble-dollar exchange rate was at a 69:1 ratio. Still, it’s a far cry from where Russia originally stood in 2022: after economic sanctions, Russian inflation skyrocketed from 6.7% to 13.8%. Nowadays, the damage has started to even out - Russian inflation has decreased since its record high in 2022, hitting 7.8% in April 2024. Predictions of growth in the Russian economy have been forecasted, with the IMF projecting Russia’s GDP growth to be 2.6% in 2024.&nbsp;Sanctions in the long term In the case of the Russian-Ukrainian war, economic sanctions were effective in the short-term as harsh and immediate punishments, but have become progressively more ineffective when left to settle. Alternative methods do exist: culturally, Russia has suffered by being banned from the Olympics, the World Cup, and other important events – but whether or not cultural and social isolation is enough to dissuade Russia is an entirely different matter. Perhaps the most effective move would be to remove Russia from its international seats of political power, such as the Security Council. It would not be without precedent: Russia had been previously expelled from the G8 following the annexation of Crimea, but it remains unlikely in the grander scheme of global power dynamics.&nbsp;There are always loopholes and alternatives to be found, especially when sanctions aren’t held universally against the sanctioned. States can impose as many as they’d like – if they do not have the ability to uphold them meaningfully, sanctions are little more than symbolic.

Russia’s War of Aggression against Ukraine

Economic Sanctions and Their Failures: Insights from the Russia’s War of Aggression against Ukraine

EU Elections

How EU Elections Have the Power to Shape the Future of Accession for  Candidate Countries

International Day of Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace, 24 April

The University and Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace – Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

The United Nations, founded on 24 October 1945 with the goal of promoting international cooperation and world peace, has faced <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/global-insider/2021/09/20/is-a-toothless-united-nations-still-relevant-494401">criticism</a> in recent years for its perceived irrelevance in a rapidly changing world. Critics <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/07/what-has-the-un-achieved-united-nations">argue </a>that the organization is slow, bureaucratic, and out of touch with the realities of the 21st century. Despite criticisms of its bureaucracy and effectiveness, the United Nations remains a valuable institution in addressing the complex challenges of the 21st century.Actualizing Its MissionAt its <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/united-nations-charter">inception</a>, the UN symbolized the collective determination to prevent the outbreak of another devastating war and mitigate the devastation witnessed during World War II. Over the decades, the organization has played a vital role in <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/DPA%20Report%20REV9%20ENG%20WEB_0.PDF">mediating disputes</a>, promoting<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/strengthening-coordination-emergency-humanitarian-assistance-united-nations-report-secretary-general-a7873-e202361-enarruzh"> humanitarian efforts</a>, and establishing a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/international-law-and-justice">framework for international law</a>. Still, the UN's role in international conflicts has been a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44154190">contentious topic</a>, with some arguing that it has been ineffective in preventing or stopping wars, while others point to its successes in mediating conflicts and reducing violence.Can Be Good, But …For example, the United Nation Security Council’s <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.unc.mil/History/1950-1953-Korean-War-Active-Conflict/">authorization</a> of military intervention in Korea in 1950 as a response to North Korea's invasion of South Korea was seen by <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/i40006598">many</a> authors as a successful example of collective action to repel aggression and maintain international peace. One thing to note here is that although it is often said that the UN authorized the military intervention in Korea, it was actually the UN Security Council (UNSC) that gave the authorization. The UNSC, currently composed of 15 member states, has the primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security.The UNSC's authorization of military intervention in Korea was a major turning point for the UN, as it marked the first time the UNSC had authorized military action under <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.un.org/en/about-us/un-charter/chapter-7">Chapter VII</a> of the UN Charter, which allows the UNSC to take measures to maintain international peace and security. So, while the UNSC's authorization was a significant step, it's important to distinguish the role of the UNSC from that of the UN as a whole. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://unscr.com/en/resolutions/84">Resolution</a> 84 called on UN member states to provide military assistance to South Korea and designated the United States to establish and lead a unified command composed of military forces from UN member states.This response was swift and decisive, demonstrating the UN's ability to respond to aggression and uphold international law. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.unc.mil/Organization/Contributors/">coalition of countries</a> that participated in this demonstrated that the UN could mobilize a multilateral response to aggression.Unlike the Korean War, the intervention in the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Vietnam-War">Vietnam War</a> was not authorized by the UNSC. Regardless, a largely unilateral military intervention by the United States and its allies in 1964.did happen, rather than an internationally sanctioned action, which contributed to its &nbsp;<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25723669">controversial nature</a>.This exposed some of the inherent limitations of the United Nations. While the UN was founded with the noble goal of promoting peace and security, its ability to prevent or end conflicts is often hampered by the conflicting interests of its member states. The UN, notably the Security Council, mirrors the collective will of member states, embodying diverse geopolitical interests. Its efficacy hinges on consensus, and when achieved, implementation of decisions is feasible. However, divergent national interests often hinder swift resolutions, rendering the UN susceptible to paralysis. Welcome to the 21st century: Shortcomings …Going through its 70+ years of existence, the United Nations (UN) has stood as a beacon of hope for international cooperation and peace. Yet, it faces significant shortcomings, mostly within the UN Security Council, where the (largely static) dynamics established in the aftermath of World War II continue to shape decision-making. The power vested in the five permanent members, each with veto power, can <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/06/28/un-security-council-reform-what-world-thinks-pub-90032">lead</a> to gridlock and compromise the Council's ability to address pressing issues.For instance, the UN Security Council has been largely ineffective in addressing Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. Russia, as a permanent member, <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112802">used</a> its veto power to block any meaningful action by the Council. The UNSC's inability to hold Russia accountable for its actions in Ukraine has been seen as a major failing, and has led to accusations that the UN is <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.eda.admin.ch/eda/en/fdfa/fdfa/aktuell/newsuebersicht/2023/09/interview-thomas-guerber.html">toothless </a>in the face of powerful states. Also, the UN's response to the conflict has been <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russias-ukraine-invasion-highlights-the-need-for-fundamental-un-reform/">criticized </a>for being reactive rather than proactive, with <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/20/zelenskyy-trashes-the-un-for-not-doing-enough-against-russia-00117077">many </a>arguing that the organization has not done enough to prevent the escalation of the conflict. Thus, in an era where geopolitical realities have shifted, the question of reforming the Security Council to reflect the contemporary power balances remains unresolved. … vs. AdvantagesYet, for all its flaws, the UN remains a critical actor &nbsp;in global affairs. It provides a <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.un.org/en/annualreport">forum </a>for countries to come together to discuss pressing issues, negotiate solutions, and work towards a more just and sustainable future.One of the most important roles of the UN is to promote and protect human rights through its <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.un.org/en/collection/29/7832">various bodies</a>. The UN also plays a key role in responding to humanitarian crises around the world, providing food, shelter, and medical aid to those in need. For instance, through its various bodies it is facilitating the provision of humanitarian aid to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://yemen.un.org/en/about/about-the-un">Yemen</a>, which is experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis due to the ongoing civil war, and <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.un.org/en/our-work/deliver-humanitarian-aid">aid </a>to people displaced by conflict and natural disasters in countries such as Syria, South Sudan, and Afghanistan.In addition to its humanitarian work, the UN is also at the forefront of efforts to combat global poverty. Through its<a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals"> Sustainable Development Goals</a> (SDGs), the UN has set ambitious targets for reducing poverty, improving health and education, and promoting gender equality. These goals provide a roadmap for countries to work together to create a more equitable and prosperous world.The UN also plays an important role in addressing global threats like climate change. The <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>, which was negotiated and signed by nearly every country in the world under the auspices of the UN, is a crucial step in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating the effects of climate change. The UN's work on climate change is particularly important given the urgent need for global action to address this existential threat.Therefore…In the face of the previously mentioned challenges, it is crucial that the UN continues to adapt and evolve. Reforms are needed to improve efficiency and effectiveness, and the UN must become more agile and responsive to global threats and opportunities. Despite its flaws, the UN remains the only truly universal and inclusive organization that can bring the world together to address the most pressing global challenges. Its ideals of peace, justice, and human rights are as relevant today as they were at its inception.Still, the effectiveness of the UN depends largely on the political will and cooperation of its member states. The UN is only as effective as the states that make it up. Without the support and cooperation of its members, the UN cannot effectively carry out its mandate. This is why it's important for states to work together and find common ground in the pursuit of peace and security. The UN is a platform for dialogue and negotiation, and it's only through those means that it can make a real difference in the world.'The United Nations was not created in order to bring us to heaven, but in order to save us from hell.' - &nbsp;Dag Hammarskjöld, Secretary-General of the United Nations (1953 - 1961) About the Author: Hata Kujraković holds an MSc degree in European Affairs from Lund University (Sweden) and currently works as a project coordinator at the Social Sciences Research Center.&nbsp;

Social Insights Blog

UN-veiling the Relevance: The Role of the United Nations in a Turbulent World

Panel discussion: Translating Political Ideology into Political Programmes- Example of German Political Foundations

Panel discussion: Labor Unions in the fight for social justice and decent work for all

Guest lecture: The UN General Assembly and Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace - the Resolution on the Genocide in Srebrenica

SSRC Research Presented at the Eight Annual Tartu Conference in Estonia

Kurtović Presented SSRC Research at the 2024 RSA Annual Conference 

SSRC Research Presented at the CEEISA - ISA Joint International Conference 2024 in Rijeka

Project Development Workshop for COST Actions Organized as a Part of the Project Development Facility

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